China continues to import significant volumes of butter and cheese despite ongoing economic concerns and growing domestic milk production, but imports are still not as strong as they were years ago, according to Betty Berning, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report.
“China has been working toward dairy self-sufficiency by investing in dairy farms, which has been bringing import values down. In addition, Chinese consumers could also be shifting their preferences to other products, which also could be cutting into imports of some dairy products,” Berning says.
Offering evidence for the changing consumer preference theory, Berning notes 2025 butter and cheese imports to China through September were on pace to set record highs for the year. According to data from Trade Data Monitor, China’s cheese imports climbed 13.5%, relative to September 2024, to 31.5 million pounds, and for the first nine months of the year, they were 8.7% ahead of the same period in 2024. Butter imports also topped 23.7 million pounds for the year, 8.8% larger compared to the first nine months of 2024.
Whole milk powder (WMP) imports to China, which are sourced mostly from New Zealand, grew 41% in September to 32.3 million pounds, against a weak comparison in the same month in 2024. Year to date through September, China imported 724.2 million pounds of WMP, the ninth largest volume since 2016, with only 2024 lagging in the data set. Skim milk powder imports of 18.6 million pounds sank 3% from September 2024 and were the lowest September figure since 2011. Meanwhile, whey imports fell slightly, down 3.1% compared to September 2024, to 117.4 million pounds.
“Surprisingly, China’s imports of U.S. whey products only dropped 0.5%, despite ongoing trade tensions between the two nations,” Berning says. “Earlier this year, China announced plans to reduce its hog population by 1 million breeding sows. As a result, whey imports, including those from the United States, with or without tariffs, could continue to dwindle in coming months.”
The uncertainty surrounding the Chinese economy also continues to cloud the dairy import forecast.
“Even though growth in China’s third-quarter GDP of 4.8% met analysts’ expectations, it was the smallest increase in a year,” Berning says. “Of concern was a year-to-date decrease of 0.5% in fixed-asset investment, which includes real estate. Economists had expected this area to grow modestly, and the decline underscores ongoing issues in the Chinese real estate market.”
This ongoing economic uncertainty has spurred cautiousness in Chinese consumers. While year-over-year retail sales rose 3% in September, they were down compared to August.
Berning says: “Given the uncertain economy and the ongoing trade dispute, huge sales of U.S. dairy products to China seem unlikely until the Chinese economy shows lasting signs of strength.”
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